Terrorism risks vary across the Asia-Pacific region, with three countries among the ten most affected globally: Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. At the other end of the spectrum, countries including Australia and Japan offer superior risk profiles.
Coordinated small-arms attacks by ERW actors in Australia and New Zealand are an exceptional but significant threat.
Following the right-wing terrorist attack on two Christchurch mosques in March 2019, there is an increased risk of retaliatory attacks by Islamist extremists (see figure below).
In Pakistan, the separatist movement in Balochistan presents a significant threat to the interests of Chinese firms.
Sporadic attacks on Chinese individuals and infrastructural assets have resulted in a series of casualties since August 2018 and caused project disruption in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
In the Philippines, the threat of Islamist militancy remains confined to southern provinces, primarily Mindanao, where small IED attacks against security forces are likely in the one-year outlook.
Key Terrorist actors in 2019
Abu Sayyuf (Philippines)
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (Philippines)
Jemaah Islamiya (Indonesia)
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistan/Afghanistan)
Baloch Seperatists (Pakistan)
Naxalite millitants (India)
Extreme right-wing groups (Australia/New Zealand)
Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent(Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh)
Which sectors are most exposed?
Public transport systems have been aspirational targets for terrorist organizations operating throughout Asia-Pacific (see below).
The 2017 Jakarta terrorist attacks in Indonesia targeted a bus terminal with IEDs, killing five people and injuring a dozen more.
In 2019, public transport systems in India will be a higher-risk target for Pakistan-based militants.
Public spaces/religious institutions
Public spaces across Asia-Pacific are attractive targets for extremist Islamists, as well as right-wing actors in Australia and New Zealand.
A stabbing in Melbourne, Australia in November 2018 targeted civilians in the central business district, killing one person and injuring two others.
A firearms attack by an individual with extreme right-wing views on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand in March 2019 killed 51 and injured 50 others.
And in April 2019, suicide bombings by a little-known Islamist group devastated churches and hotels across Sri Lanka, killing more than 250 people and injuring approximately 500 more.