Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said its long-range outlook for 2019 hurricane season is expected to be slightly below average, predicting there will be 12 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes at the mid-point of its forecast range, with variability around each figure.
TSR expects trade wind speeds to be slightly stronger than normal between July and September, due to continued weak El Niño conditions, which could lower Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019.
However, they reiterated that its forecasts cannot be precise at this Colorado State University (CSU) scientists also put the most likely scenario for 2019 as one with below-average Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) conditions and hence storm activity.
Atlantic Hurricane Naming Protocols
Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms had been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center.
They are now maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
There are six lists used in rotation and re-cycled every six years.
The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.
Tropical Storm Risk’s predictions for 2019 hurricane season
If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
Several names have been retired since the lists were created.
If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date.
For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season’s list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season’s list of names.
In the event that more than twenty-one named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta etc.).
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