Succession Risks in 2019

13 March 2019

Succession risks will continue to dominate the political risk landscape across emerging markets in 2019. Disorderly transitions of political power present immediate and long-term risks to business and investment. From strikes, riots and civil commotion to political violence and civil war, unmanaged political transition can disrupt the business environment and harm commercial interests. JLT Specialty highlights those countries where political transition presents a high degree of risk in 2019.

Succession Risks Infographic

Algeria

ALGERIA

President: Abdulaziz Bouteflika
Age: 81
Time in power: 19 years
Key risks: Business Interruption, Government/Regulation Change
Recent events: Anti-Bouteflika protests in Algiers – Feb, 2019
Analysis:
Bouteflika will attempt to run for a fifth Presidential term in 2019 despite ill health and deepening unpopularity.

Algeria is a crucial energy market - Africa’s 4th largest producer of crude oil and the world’s 6th largest producer of natural gas, with FDI inflows of USD 703.2 per capita.

Cameroon

CAMEROON

President: Paul Biya
Age: 86
Time in power: 43 years
Key risks: Terrorism, War, Strikes, Riots, Violence and Civil Commotion
Recent events: Secessionist violence in anglophone regions – Jan, 2019
Analysis:
Political stability in Cameroon will continue to be undermined by unrest in the anglophone regions and uncertainty surrounding President Biya’s successor

The business environment is poor due to security concerns, with FDI inflows of USD 269.1 per capita.

Equatorial Guinea

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

President: Teodoro Obiang Nguema
Age: 76
Time in power: 39 years
Key risks: Power struggle; Coup d’état; Contractual Agreement Repudiation
Recent events: Vice President has USD 16 million seized in Brazil – Sep, 2018
Analysis:
President Obiang intends to appoint his son and current vice president Teodorin Obiang as successor

The risk of an internal coup d’état remains high. The small elite of wealthy business owners may turn on the regime if the global downturn in oil prices translates into a contraction in the economy.

Gabon

GABO

President: Ali Bongo Ondimba
Age: 60
Time in power: 8 years
Key risks: PCoup d’état, Business Interruption
Recent events: Failed Coup d’état attempt – Jan, 2019
Analysis:
Gabon remains without an official head of state, as President Ali Bongo recuperates after having suffered a stroke in October 2018

There is a significant risk of business interruption and uncertainty if a military government were to take over

Foreign direct investment into Gabon remains strong at USD 4,685.8 per capita, driven by investment in oil, mining and timber sectors.

Tunisia

TUNISIA

President: Beji Caid Essebi
Age: 92
Time in power: 5 years
Key risks: Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotion, Contractual Agreement Repudiation
Recent events: President Essebi extends nationwide State of Emergency – Jan, 2019
Analysis:
Political coalition unlikely to last until the 2019 election due to internal divisions and minor re-shuffles

This will result in delays in policy implementation and constrain the fiscal space for foreign direct investment. FDI inflows are currently USD 2,409.9.

Kazakhstan

KAZAKHSTAN

President: Nursultan Nazarbayev
Age: 78
Time in power: 28 years
Key risks: Contractual Agreement Repudiation, Strikes, Riots and Civil Commotion
Recent events: President Nazarbayev sacks government for economic failures – Feb, 2019
Analysis:
Kazakhstan’s political environment is broadly stable but the issue of presidential succession is a significant risk to businesses

Disorderly transition raises the risk of a power struggle and a regime change that could prove unpredictable for investors.

Cambodia

CAMBODIA

President Hun Sen
Age: 66
Time in power: 34 years
Key risks: Trade sanctions, Country Economic Risk
Recent events: EU begins process to sanction Cambodia – Feb, 2019
Analysis:
Cambodia became a one-party state in July 2018. There is no clear succession plan in place, although it is reported that Hun Sen may elevate his son, Hun Manet

A power struggle or turn toward military rule would destabilise the business environment.

Turkey

TURKEY

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Age: 65
Time in power: 15 years
Key risks: Currency Inconvertibility and Transfer Risk; Terrorism
Recent events: Turkish Lira collapses and reaches record low against USD – Aug, 2018
Analysis:
Erdoğan has consolidated executive authority at the expense of checks and balances, reducing transparency and making foreign policy unpredictable

The recent Turkey-U.S standoff and associated collapse in the Turkish Lira are warning signs for investors.

FDI Inflows

Algeria
USD 703.2 per capita

Cameroon
USD 269.1 per capita

Equatorial Guinea
USD 10,818.8 per capita

Gabon
USD 4,685.5 per capita

Tunisia
USD 2,490.9 per capita

Kazakhstan
USD 7,214.5 per capita

Cambodia
USD 1, 299.2 per capita

Turkey
USD 2,237.9 per capita

Eleanor SmithTALK TO AN EXPERT

For further information, please contact Eleanor Smith, Senior Political Risk Analyst on +44 (0)121 626 7837 or email eleanor_smith@jltgroup.com